Probability Analysis: Tools for SPY Options Trading

Hover over any point on the chart to see the probability of expiring above that strike price!

Expected Move Formula

\( EM = S \times \sigma \times std \times \sqrt{\tfrac{DTE}{365}} \)

SPY Expected Move

Expiration Dec 09 (1D) Dec 10 (2D) Dec 11 (3D) Dec 12 (4D) Dec 15 (7D) Dec 16 (8D) Dec 17 (9D) Dec 18 (10D) Dec 19 (11D) Dec 22 (14D) Dec 26 (18D)
lower 676.873 674.377 672.462 670.847 666.955 665.854 664.82 663.842 662.912 660.351 657.332
upper 688.927 691.423 693.338 694.953 698.845 699.946 700.98 701.958 702.888 705.449 708.468
expected move 6.027 8.523 10.438 12.053 15.945 17.046 18.08 19.058 19.988 22.549 25.568
Nianguang Zhao '25G, Master's in Financial Engineering at Lehigh University | Aspiring Quant | Cleared CFA Level 1
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